President Bola Ahmed Tinubu‘s decision to retain Vice President Kashim Shettima as his running mate for the 2027 presidential election has brought an end to months of political speculation within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

For much of the year, reports and political discussions suggested that Tinubu could replace Shettima with another northern politician as the APC prepared for what is expected to be one of Nigeria’s most competitive presidential elections. Those rumours were laid to rest on Friday when the APC formally submitted the names of Tinubu and Shettima as its presidential ticket.

So why did President Tinubu stick with Shettima despite the intense speculation?

1. Loyalty and Political Stability

One of the strongest factors appears to be political loyalty.

Shettima was among Tinubu’s earliest and most vocal supporters during the APC presidential primaries in 2022. Since assuming office in 2023, the Vice President has publicly defended the administration’s policies and maintained a low-profile but active role in government.

Retaining him projects unity within the presidency and avoids the perception of internal crisis less than a year before the election.

2. Avoiding a Divided APC

Replacing a sitting vice president could have triggered discontent among influential APC stakeholders, particularly in the North-East.

Although some politicians reportedly questioned Shettima’s future on the ticket, changing running mates would likely have created fresh political battles within the party at a time when the APC is trying to consolidate support nationwide. Reports indicate that some interests had pushed for a replacement, but Tinubu ultimately retained his deputy.

3. Preserving North-East Support

Shettima remains one of the APC’s most influential leaders in Nigeria’s North-East.

As a former Governor of Borno State and former senator, he continues to command significant political influence across the region.

Political analysts believe retaining him helps the APC preserve its electoral strength in a region considered strategically important in presidential elections.

4. Rewarding Performance in Office

Although Vice Presidents traditionally have fewer executive powers than Presidents, Shettima has represented Tinubu at numerous international engagements, chaired economic and investment meetings, and coordinated several government initiatives since 2023.

Keeping him on the ticket may signal the President’s confidence in his performance and continuity within the administration.

5. Continuity Over Political Experiment

Changing a running mate shortly before an election often raises questions about disagreements within government.

By retaining Shettima, Tinubu is presenting continuity rather than uncertainty.

The APC can now campaign on the same leadership team that won the 2023 presidential election instead of introducing a new partnership that voters would have to assess.

6. The Muslim-Muslim Ticket Debate

Much of the speculation centred on whether Tinubu would abandon the Muslim-Muslim ticket that generated significant debate ahead of the 2023 election.

Some political observers suggested the President could choose a northern Christian to broaden the APC’s appeal and respond to concerns raised over the same-faith ticket.

However, Friday’s announcement confirmed that Tinubu decided to maintain the same presidential pairing that secured victory in the last election, signalling that the APC believes continuity outweighs the political risks associated with changing the ticket.

7. A Message of Confidence

The decision also sends a message that Tinubu remains confident in his administration and does not see the need for major changes to strengthen his re-election bid.

By keeping Shettima, the President is effectively telling party members and voters that the current leadership team deserves another mandate based on its record in office.

What Happens Next?

With the APC ticket now settled, political attention is expected to shift to opposition parties, many of which are still negotiating alliances and deciding on their presidential candidates ahead of the 2027 election.

The Tinubu-Shettima ticket is likely to become a major campaign issue, with supporters arguing that continuity is necessary to sustain ongoing reforms, while critics are expected to focus on the administration’s handling of the economy, security and cost-of-living challenges.

As the race toward 2027 gathers momentum, the decision to retain Shettima may prove to be one of the defining strategic choices of Tinubu’s re-election campaign.

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